One month after the biggest IPO in history made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, SpaceX stock just gave it all back. Down from $225 to $132. Musk’s net worth has fallen from $1.45 trillion to $857 billion. And a Starship test launch — the company’s 13th — is scheduled for tomorrow.
SpaceX’s fall below its IPO price — a striking reversal exactly one month after the largest initial public offering in stock market history. Shares slid as much as 2.9% to $132.15 before closing at $135.27, effectively flat but still below the $135 price at which SpaceX sold shares to investors in its record $86 billion June offering. This is the fourth consecutive down session for the stock. SpaceX surged nearly 50% in its first three trading days, briefly sending shares above $225 and the company’s valuation above $2.6 trillion — momentarily rivalling Microsoft and Amazon. By contrast, SpaceX‘s market capitalisation is around $1.75 trillion — a decline of roughly 34% from that all-time high.
What’s Happening & Why It Matters
Why the Stock Has Fallen
SpaceX’s fall below its IPO price is a specific and largely mechanical set of pressures rather than a fundamental reassessment of the company’s prospects. Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, described the retreat as “a combination of profit-taking, valuation reassessment and the unwinding of extremely bullish positioning” following one of the most anticipated listings in recent years. Just 4% of the company’s total shares are trading on the Nasdaq — that small “float,” combined with intense investor attention, has created wild swings throughout the stock’s first month.
Additionally, SpaceX‘s addition to the Nasdaq-100 index last week — via a rule change shortening the eligibility period to 15 trading days for newly public companies — did not reverse the retreat. Shares have dropped roughly 13% since joining the index, despite the passive index-fund buying that inclusion typically generates.
AI Scepticism and SpaceX’s Own Numbers
SpaceX’s fall below its IPO price connects to an investor mood TF has tracked extensively throughout 2026. Reuters described the breach of the IPO price as reinforcing “the narrative that the stock is up on fluff, on speculation, on froth, and not on real fundamentals.” As TF covered in its AI stock market sell-off article, investors have grown increasingly sceptical of AI-linked valuations that outrun demonstrated revenue.
SpaceX‘s own financials give that scepticism concrete footing. The company’s AI-related capital expenditure reached $7.7 billion in the first quarter — approximately 75% of total capex. SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and an additional $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026. As TF covered in its SpaceX Cursor acquisition article, SpaceX acquired Elon Musk‘s AI venture xAI in an all-stock deal in February — a merger that bears direct responsibility for the majority of the company’s capital spending, and, by extension, a meaningful share of investor concern about return prospects.
Musk’s Wealth Falls From $1.45 Trillion
SpaceX’s fall below its IPO price carries a direct and dramatic personal consequence for Elon Musk. As TF covered in its Musk trillionaire status article, Musk briefly became the world’s first trillionaire on SpaceX’s June IPO, controlling a 38% stake in the company. His wealth has since fallen from a peak of $1.45 trillion to an estimated $856.8 billion as of Wednesday — a decline of roughly $593 billion in barely a month, tracking the stock’s own trajectory almost exactly.
By contrast, analyst sentiment on the underlying business is largely positive despite the price decline. The consensus price target across 21 analysts is at roughly $247, according to FactSet data cited by Axios — with 80% rating the stock “buy” or “overweight.” That gap between analyst optimism and current trading price is the specific dynamic Hathorn described: near-term positioning unwind, not a fundamental downgrade of SpaceX’s long-term prospects.
Starship, Earnings, and the Lock-Up Expiry
SpaceX’s fall below its IPO price arrives immediately ahead of two potentially significant catalysts. SpaceX conducts its 13th Starship test flight on Thursday — the first since a booster failure in May, and the first since the company’s June IPO. Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers, noted the stock’s outsized influence on investor mood: “There hasn’t been anything lately to remind people of some of the catalysts for why they bought SpaceX.”
SpaceX‘s first quarterly earnings report since going public is expected in the first week of August. Following that report, the initial phase of the IPO lock-up period expires — allowing eligible employees and early shareholders to begin selling portions of their holdings for the first time, an event analysts expect could weigh on the stock. As TF covered in its SpaceX IPO article, the offering also opened the door for Anthropic and OpenAI‘s own confidential IPO filings — both companies’ eventual public debuts will be judged partly against how SpaceX’s post-IPO trajectory resolves.
TF Summary: What’s Next
SpaceX’s 13th Starship test flight is scheduled for Thursday, 16 July. The company’s first quarterly earnings report as a public company is expected in the first week of August. The initial lock-up period for employees and early shareholders expires following that report. Anthropic is reportedly lining up investor meetings ahead of a potential October IPO, with SpaceX’s post-debut performance serving as a direct reference point.
MY FORECAST: SpaceX’s fall below its IPO price will stabilise once the lock-up expiry passes and initial positioning unwinds fully — the fundamentals Sosnick referenced haven’t materially changed, and the 80% analyst buy consensus suggests institutional confidence in the underlying business is intact even as retail enthusiasm cools. By contrast, a successful 13th Starship test flight could provide the exact catalyst the stock currently lacks, while a failure would compound the current downward momentum meaningfully. The August earnings report — SpaceX’s first as a public company — will be the more consequential test: if xAI’s AI capex continues consuming three-quarters of total spending without a clear path to matching revenue, expect continued investor scepticism regardless of how well Starship performs operationally.
Related Stories
- SpaceX Goes Public — the Largest IPO in Stock Market History
- Elon Musk Lost Trillionaire Status in Three Days — the SpaceX Sell-Off Explains Why
- AI Stocks Sell Off as Markets Ask Whether the Spending Will Ever Pay Off