No terms exist, Musk is staying out of the talks, and any deal needs a high Tesla shareholder vote
The Tesla SpaceX merger idea gained Elon Musk’s support on 20 October, as SpaceX reported a $4.4 billion profit. TF examines thee merger hurdles, the earning,s and the points where reports differ.
What’s Happening & Why It Matters
What Musk Said
Musk told analysts a combination of Tesla and SpaceX is “a good idea,” according to Euronews. He said treating a deal as certain would overstate the case. The companies have agreed no terms.
Special committees of independent directors at both firms are studying the idea at shareholders’ request. Musk says he has a conflict of interest and takes no part. He named AI software, chip design, robotics and space-based computing as areas for collaboration.
The Hurdles
A deal needs approval from a majority ofTesla’sasharese, including unvoted shares. Musk called the bar high. Musk is CEO of both firms and chairman and CTO of SpaceX.
He held 48.4% of SpaceX on 30 June and controls more than 82% of its votes through enhanced-voting shares. He holds about 20% of Tesla, according to Euronews. One report cites valuations of about $2 trillion (€1.8 trillion) for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion (€1.3 trillion) for Tesla.
The Quarter in Numbers
SpaceX reported net income of $4.4 billion (€3.9 billion) for July to September, against a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier. Revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion (€13.0 billion). Capital spending reached $19.6 billion (€17.4 billion), and SpaceX forecasts $35 billion to $40 billion for the current quarter, according to the Associated Press.
The AI business, which SpaceX calls Super Intelligence, grewrevenuee more than ninefold to $7.6 billion (€6.8 billion). The AI unit is larger than Starlink. Starlinkrevenuee rose 69% to $5.2 billion (€4.6 billion), with 13.6 millionconsumer subscribers.
The AI Contracts
Anthropic agreed in May to pay almost $45 billion (€40 billion) over three years for compute at SpaceX’s Colossus data centers, Euronews reports. Google agreed to pay $920 million (€819 million) a month from October 2026 to June 2029. TF covered Anthropic’s growth in Anthropic Revenue Surges 46% Before $2Tn IPO.
SpaceX runs 1.7 gigawatts of compute, up from 0.6 gigawatts a year earlier. Musk expects 2.5 to 3.0 gigawatts by the end of 2026. He cited power, cooling and electrical equipment as limits.
Where the Reports Differ
Reports disagree on the share move after the call. Euronews says SpaceX shares rose almost 5% in after-hours trading. The AP says 7.5%, and a CNBC headline says 10%. TheAP says the shares closed Tuesday at $147.79, well below a post-IPO peak near $20P.
Speculation puts the IPO price as $135 per share and the listing date as 12 June. The AP notes Musk’s $276 million of political spending since July. TF covered his child share pledge in Musk Pledges a SpaceX Share for Every Child in America.
My take: A merger would join two Musk companies, and Tesla holders carry the pricing risk. They must judge a price for SpaceX’s AI and launch business. Musk leads both firms. The independent committees and the high vote threshold are the real checks.
TF Summary: What’s Next
Tesla reports results on Wednesday. The special committees have to hire advisers and set terms. Tesla holders would vote on any deal. SpaceX will attempt to catch a booster and ship it on its next Starship launch.
MY FORECAST: The committees will take at least six months to report. Musk will disclose a proposed structure by mid-2027. A Tesla vote will need a premium to market value to pass. Regulators will review the conflict of interest in any deal.
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