The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs as AI chipmakers surged. In China, Moonshot and DeepSeek line up capital and listings.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs on 6 October, lifted by AI chipmakers. The S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to close near 7,819, above 7,800 for the first time. The Nasdaq Composite added about 0.45% to close at 27,599.79. Nvidia and AMD reached all-time highs.
Meanwhile, in China, Moonshot AI is targeting a Hong Kong IPO in early 2027 at a valuation near $50 billion (€44.6 billion), Bloomberg reported. DeepSeek is raising far more than it sought. US and Chinese investors are both paying up for AI growth, and both face risks.
What’s Happening & Why It Matters
Records Across Wall Street
Bloomberg reports the S&P 500 notched its first record close since August. It rose for a fourth straight session, its longest winning run in about two months. Resilient corporate profits, AI spending prospects, and lower oil prices helped. The Cboe Volatility Index hovered near 15, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell for the first time in three days.
The Nasdaq set a record a day earlier, closing at 27,477.31 on 5 October, up 1.05%, per Schwab. Micron, Nvidia, and AMD all reached records, Yahoo Finance reports. TSMC’s US-listed shares also hit a record, with a market value near $2.5 trillion (€2.2 trillion), BigGo reports.
Nvidia Nears $6 Trillion
Nvidia closed at a record $238.90 on 5 October, valuing it at $5.78 trillion (€5.1 trillion), the Seoul Economic Daily reports. A gain of about 3.8% would make it the first company worth $6 trillion (€5.3 trillion). The stock has rallied 23% from a late-July low, when AI worries wiped more than $1 trillion (€0.9 trillion) off its value, per Bloomberg. Investinglive credits a $150 billion (€134 billion) buyback and a Morgan Stanley top-pick call for the latest leg.
Demand data supports the rally. Foxconn, a key assembler of Nvidia’s AI servers, reported third-quarter revenue up 47% from a year earlier. Still, Nvidia has trailed its sector: it’s up about 28% this year, against roughly 96% for the wider chip index, per Investinglive.
Yields and Concentration
The rally runs against a strained bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 5.3% this week, its highest level in about 24 years, according to market reports. Schwab notes rising yields sent investors toward big tech. The Nasdaq-100 has outpaced the Dow and the small-cap Russell 2000 over three months, and the chip sector is up almost 20% from late-July lows.
Bubble talk is back. Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi pointed to the railroad bust of 1873. DBS Group disagrees, arguing Nvidia’s valuation and a projected 70% earnings growth next year keep AI stocks far from bubble territory, BigGo notes.
Moonshot Plans a Hong Kong Listing
Moonshot, the Beijing company behind Kimi, closed its final private round at about $50 billion (€44.6 billion). It targets a Hong Kong IPO in the first quarter of 2027, Bloomberg reports, and has filed confidentially. It’s considering raising to $5 billion (€4.5 billion). Bank of America coordinates the deal, with CICC, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs as sponsors. Early-look investor meetings could begin this month.
Annual recurring revenue is about $1 billion (€0.9 billion) and on track to reach $2 billion (€1.8 billion) by December, per Bloomberg. At $1 billion, a $50 billion valuation is 50 times annualised revenue. In an earlier round this summer, investors valued Moonshot at $31.5 billion (€28 billion). Alibaba, Tencent, and 5Y Capital back the company.
Two risks cloud the plan. Chinese regulators opened a data-security probe into Moonshot and DeepSeek, per The Information. In July, the White House accused Moonshot of distilling Anthropic’s Fable 5 model into Kimi K3, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of sanctions or Entity List designation. Moonshot rejects the claim, and coverage found no sanctions imposed. TF covered the wider fight in AI: Safety U-Turns, Blocked Bioweapons, and a Fight With China and Moonshot’s safety lapse in A Chinese AI Model Gave Bioweapon Instructions After a Jailbreak.
Hong Kong is a receptive market. IPO proceeds reached $41.2 billion (€36.7 billion) through mid-August, more than double the same period a year earlier, per LSEG data. Zhipu, which trades as Z.ai, listed there in January as the first large language model company to go public, Yicai reported.
DeepSeek Raises More Than It Sought
DeepSeek is raising between ¥80 billion (€10.6 billion) and ¥100 billion (€13.3 billion) in a round led by Tencent and CATL, Euronews reports. Bloomberg says the company is close to securing at least $12 billion (€10.7 billion), well past its target, ahead of an IPO in 2027, according to people familiar with the situation. Calcalist says the round could approach $15 billion (€13.4 billion). Yahoo Finance’s segment on the round noted DeepSeek is building data centres on Huawei chips.
The capital race is global. Bloomberg reports OpenAI is seeking at least $30 billion (€26.7 billion) in a new round anchored by Abu Dhabi’s MGX. Anthropic targets a valuation above $2 trillion (€1.8 trillion) for its IPO, as TF covered in Anthropic’s IPO Filing Warns AI May Pose Existential Risks to Humanity. US and Chinese labs are raising capital in the same quarter.
TF Summary: What’s Next
Moonshot’s early-look investor meetings could begin this month, with a Hong Kong listing targeted for the first quarter of 2027. DeepSeek’s round hasn’t closed, and an IPO is expected next year, per people familiar. Nvidia needs about 3.8% more to reach $6 trillion (€5.3 trillion). Earnings season approaches with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%.
MY FORECAST: Expect Nvidia to cross $6 trillion (€5.3 trillion) before year-end. Expect Moonshot’s prospectus to carry sanctions and data-security risk language, as Anthropic’s did for AI risk. Expect DeepSeek to file for a listing after its round closes. Watch the 10-year yield: a climb well above 5.3% will test the AI trade before either IPO prices.
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